Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 0.347394 0.403524 0.464482 0.535428 0.615549 0.703043 0.805629
2025-05-18 0.253638 0.323018 0.404292 0.505905 0.628870 0.772149 0.950963
2025-05-25 0.184273 0.257011 0.348743 0.471535 0.630026 0.825980 1.084617
2025-06-01 0.141665 0.216197 0.317217 0.461568 0.659489 0.917901 1.276692
2025-06-08 0.108067 0.180888 0.287059 0.448917 0.684263 1.007954 1.479291
2025-06-15 0.088146 0.161340 0.275746 0.461037 0.745367 1.155231 1.777852
2025-06-22 0.065274 0.131905 0.244267 0.438411 0.753647 1.230629 1.987132
2025-06-29 0.049519 0.110547 0.221497 0.425611 0.775359 1.329146 2.243174
2025-07-06 0.037141 0.091954 0.199558 0.410349 0.791150 1.421199 2.501472
2025-07-13 0.030332 0.082603 0.192611 0.420474 0.851576 1.592364 2.904379
2025-07-20 0.023769 0.071677 0.180158 0.418183 0.890143 1.732512 3.273231
2025-07-27 0.019150 0.063797 0.172260 0.423530 0.943939 1.905670 3.716848
2025-08-03 0.015146 0.056230 0.163814 0.427644 0.999184 2.093537 4.216148
2025-08-10 0.010908 0.045989 0.146136 0.408002 1.004277 2.191179 4.568041
2025-08-17 0.007590 0.036756 0.128030 0.383186 0.994574 2.260181 4.876830
2025-08-24 0.005701 0.031392 0.118768 0.377926 1.027123 2.417066 5.369994
2025-08-31 0.004204 0.026525 0.109255 0.369814 1.052118 2.562320 5.857158
2025-09-07 0.003423 0.024276 0.107350 0.382254 1.128517 2.825003 6.605529
2025-09-14 0.002386 0.019796 0.096018 0.364782 1.128393 2.923358 7.030028
2025-09-21 0.001718 0.016627 0.088054 0.355311 1.147176 3.066089 7.561911
2025-09-28 0.001208 0.013795 0.080045 0.343436 1.157527 3.191055 8.068649
2025-10-05 0.000967 0.012615 0.078555 0.353133 1.229222 3.467673 8.931012
2025-10-12 0.000722 0.011003 0.074298 0.352010 1.270121 3.675411 9.659401